What Makes This US Shutdown Different (and Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat element of US politics – but the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity among both major parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance because both parties – as well as the nation's leader – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base have insisted for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership has a chance to show their responsiveness.
In March, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown early this year. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.
The Democrats are using the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed government healthcare cuts for the poor, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The President and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to make more of reductions in government employment that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The President himself said last week that the shutdown provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the halting of government financial support for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust on either side
While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader along with another senior in the House, where the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.
The affected legislator and other Democrats called this racist, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough due to the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy already being roiled from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, experts indicate should the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.